Data report

Exploit Intelligence Signals

Every vulnerability-prioritisation argument eventually becomes "is this actually exploited?" This is our answer — not an opinion, a tally. Seven tiers of exploit evidence, computed daily from the Vulnetix VDB, each weighted by what it actually proves.

Explore the VDB

Treating every CVE as equally urgent is how security teams burn out. The signals below are ordered from weakest to strongest, so a finding that is merely mentioned is never confused with one that is weaponised and KEV-listed. Vulnetix computes all seven for every CVE and folds them into a single prioritisation score.

Tier 1 · Weakest signal

Mention

A CVE is being talked about — social posts, blog write-ups, advisories. Attention, not evidence of exploitation.

Tier 2 · Reporter-claimed

Bounty

A bug-bounty submission references the CVE. Program-gated and self-reported, but a sign someone built a working case for it.

Tier 3 · Observed in traffic

Sighting

CrowdSec, CIRCL and Shadowserver report the vulnerability showing up in real attack traffic, scanned IPs and honeypot hits across countries.

Tier 4 · A PoC exists

Theoretical

Public proof-of-concept code is available (VulnCheck XDB, ExploitDB, GitHub). Exploitation is demonstrated, but not necessarily operationalised.

Tier 5 · It's in tooling

Weaponised

The exploit ships inside Snort/Suricata rules, nmap NSE scripts, Nuclei templates or Metasploit modules — mature, reliable, and ready for adversarial reuse.

Tier 6 · Governments keep the list

Known exploits

CISA KEV, EU KEV and VulnCheck KEV confirm active exploitation. Not a prediction — a confirmation, with patch deadlines attached.

Tier 7 · Forward-looking score

Predicted

EPSS (exploitation probability, FIRST.org) and Coalition ESS (exploit-availability probability) estimate near-future risk for CVEs that have no observed activity yet.

From signal to decision

A CVE with CVSS 7.5 and EPSS 0.97 is more dangerous than one with CVSS 10.0 and EPSS 0.01. Vulnetix ranks your findings on observed and predicted exploitation — sightings, weaponisation, KEV status, EPSS and Coalition ESS — so remediation effort lands where exploitation is real or imminent, not merely where the severity number is high.

See how Vulnetix prioritises with exploit intelligence →